Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 30.188443 35.835047 42.008672 49.229181 57.410714 66.361587 76.861855
2025-06-08 20.853480 28.095092 36.798013 47.893617 61.519376 77.557768 97.702791
2025-06-15 16.701977 24.796372 35.238415 49.405486 67.804805 90.555893 120.439312
2025-06-22 13.001573 21.126638 32.307567 48.334468 70.175761 98.323307 136.679117
2025-06-29 11.040736 19.390984 31.526835 49.728225 75.512410 109.842900 157.976370
2025-07-06 8.491397 16.259812 28.243797 47.105199 74.925009 113.223417 168.485803
2025-07-13 7.429390 15.256749 27.918172 48.606655 80.074863 124.494531 189.967920
2025-07-20 6.496447 14.284626 27.471064 49.792839 84.729135 135.188748 211.013013
2025-07-27 5.792379 13.582131 27.341073 51.393259 90.013858 146.939563 233.939176
2025-08-03 5.132298 12.834139 27.017469 52.596821 94.687092 157.930215 256.129159
2025-08-10 4.309963 11.598618 25.665036 51.921118 96.289821 164.347550 271.822819
2025-08-17 3.739660 10.773157 24.940501 52.213010 99.396081 173.089702 291.182464
2025-08-24 3.179079 9.904479 24.122826 52.446930 102.727904 182.811960 313.181943
2025-08-31 2.519431 8.640067 22.353959 50.795576 102.813120 187.538419 327.947671
2025-09-07 2.238768 8.254023 22.323587 52.367489 108.498952 201.383291 357.252560
2025-09-14 1.806028 7.327604 20.982463 51.244638 109.316331 207.319283 374.335582
2025-09-21 1.606309 7.012641 20.953016 52.704948 114.830998 221.170102 404.401921
2025-09-28 1.209492 5.942849 18.979506 49.956285 112.388005 221.556373 412.795237
2025-10-05 1.084603 5.733881 19.060000 51.529825 118.115670 235.998363 444.475475
2025-10-12 0.960419 5.484116 18.996208 52.772638 123.260628 249.608715 475.183897
2025-10-19 0.867006 5.318806 19.126975 54.449031 129.323075 265.016846 509.310854
2025-10-26 0.769746 5.100766 19.079936 55.709409 134.617088 279.242843 541.848953
2025-11-02 0.627839 4.622881 18.222407 55.001841 135.912518 286.385030 562.618989